Polymarket trading bot

The engine's home ground is the crypto Up or Down family. For each asset it keeps a squadron on the current hourly market and rotates to the next one as it opens, and it selects the live four-hour or daily window market as a second venue for the slower strategies. Momentum, Time Decay, GBoost and Convergence work the hourly market. Maker, Basis, TrendCapture, FairValue and Arbitrage work the window.

Sports and politics markets are deployed from the Control Tower's Squadron Builder. A sports squadron matches the Polymarket moneyline to the bookmaker event and rests bids under the vig-free consensus line. A politics squadron runs the maker and arbitrage strategies on a long-dated market. The Helm lets you enter any single market with a thesis, a probability and a falsification condition, and the engine manages the position from there.

Polymarket prices move after the underlying does. DRADIS watches the underlying directly. For a BTC hourly market, the Price Raptor streams Binance spot with velocity and acceleration, the Funding and Derivatives Raptors add the perpetuals' funding rate, open interest and cumulative volume delta, and during US cash hours the Tide Raptor reads ETF flow from Alpaca IEX. Each strategy reads those feeds and the Polymarket book every tick and decides for itself whether the current ask is cheap against its own model.

FairValue, for example, computes a fair probability from realized volatility, the distance to the strike and the time to close, and only buys when the venue's ask sits below that by a margin you set. Momentum fires on a Binance move the Polymarket book has not yet absorbed. Maker quotes both sides of the window market and manages its net exposure. GBoost scores the hourly market with a model trained on the engine's own history, and is only allowed real money after it beats the market price on a held-out sample.

On Polymarket International, orders are EIP-712 signed with your own wallet and posted to the CLOB. Your key never leaves the instance. On Polymarket US, orders are signed per request with the API key from your portal account. Both venues sit behind the same venue-neutral execution layer, so the strategies do not know or care which one is underneath.

Risk controls are enforced at that layer: per-strategy capital budgets, an order-book imbalance veto that refuses entries into toxic flow, orphan detection that flattens a one-sided arbitrage leg, and a watchdog outside the async runtime that restarts the process if the loop goes silent.

Ghost mode runs everything against live Polymarket markets with simulated fills. The strategies see the real book, the real signals and the real clock, and the Control Tower records their trades as if they were live. It is the right first week for any new configuration, and the install guide walks through it step by step.

The Control Tower is a web dashboard served by the instance itself. It shows P&L, open positions, the trade log and every strategy's current verdict with the gate that is holding it. Live configuration is edited there with schema-validated bounds, so a change to a margin or a budget takes effect without a restart. An optional AI advisor, local or hosted, reads the trade history and proposes configuration patches under an autonomy tier you choose, from recommend-only to fully autonomous with a circuit breaker.

Install and upgrade guides are at dradis.live/docs. The same engine also runs on Kalshi.